October 03, 2015

No Hurricane, but still heavy rain!

The spaghetti chart is one of the better illustrations currently of the major hurricane threat going out to sea. So, no land falling Hurricane for the East Coast this weekend.  It’s kind of  amazing that it was even a possibility.  But we looked at three model runs over three different days that brought distinct areas of low pressure westward into the U.S.

But in the four days we have discussed this storm system it really has not gone anywhere except into the Central Bahamas for an extended stay.   Overnight positions over the last four nights show a southwest small loop into the Bahamas and then back out.  Overall the satellite picture below looks pretty similar to the last several nights.   A red blob well east southeast of Miami.

September 30  200 AM EDT…0600 UTC….25.5N 72.0W

October      01   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC …23.5N 73.4W

October      02   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC… 23.0N 74.7W

October      02   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC…24.8N 73.7W

The following pictures are water vapor images, they show where the rich moisture is in contrast to the drier air.   The story at the moment is the trail of moisture from Joaquin northward to the Carolinas.  The Hurricane is 500 miles away and moving away, but its moisture is still causing serious problems. This is an example of what is called “transitional season high amplitude flow”, spring or autumn weather patterns with blocking ridges and cut off lows.  These types of patterns are the most difficult for forecasters and forecast models.

Shown for comparison to water vapor image above and pic in yesterdays blog taken at the same time of day.

Columbia South Carolina radar showing what is going on under the bright white clouds.

Wild Bill