Monthly Archives: October 2015

Same Texas rivers, same Texas towns, inches of rain

October 31, 2015

Same Texas rivers, same Texas towns,  inches of rain, as extreme flash floods try to erase years of drought.  Months apart, and on the opposite sides of summer, yet even in this simple comparison,  the similarities are unmistakable.  If it wasn’t for the small differences in the satellite picture you might think I repeated the same maps.

Briefly, on both surface maps, a warm front over north Texas,  a surface high pressure area centered near West Virginia. On the upper charts, the event driving upper low over southwest centered near the four corners, a warm ridge over Florida, and some other vortex up over New England.

May 23, 2015 Overnight flash floods on the Blanco River Texas claim several lives.May 23, 2015weatherspecialpage1800z -partialCopy

October 30, 2015 Flash floods return not only to Central Texas, but to the same river basins as the May flash flood. october 30, 2015 weatherspecialpage2145zpartial-Copy

from this blog October 22, 2015:

“Olaf and now Patricia are currently hurricanes in the Pacific.  Both of these tropical systems may have some influence on the U.S. The above example shows how a direct hit is not necessary to inflict great damage.”

Patricia’s  influence on Texas flooding a week ago was pretty obvious, Olaf’s contribution this week is a little more convoluted.  But if you trace the disturbance back a few days, it is related to the decay of Olaf’s tropical circulation.

Below shows Patricia coming across Mexico, Olaf east of Hawaii, about one week ago.october 24, 2015specialpacificfulldisk0600zvapor-close Copy

Not related, and on the other side of the world, but since I brought it up in the last blog here is an update on the one tropical systems going currently.

Category 4, 140mph,  Cyclone Chapala in the Arabian sea on October 30, 2015.october 30, 2015blogtropicalpairfourvis1130 - Copy

There is something going on somewhere everyday and El Niño is making it crazier as time goes by.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes  that the stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

 

El Niño continues to grow stronger

October 29, 2015

The newest weekly Pacific sea surface temperatures have been posted. It is only a tenth of a degree increase, but a weekly anomaly of +2.5 for the week of October 21, 2015 means we continue to trail 1997 by the smallest amount.  Another warm week also means October has been a warm month, when October’s monthly temperature average is included into the ONI,  it will increase. Our event continues to grow stronger.

07OCT2015      29.1   2.4                                08OCT1997     29.2   2.6
14OCT2015      29.1   2.4                                15OCT1997     29.2   2.5
 21OCT2015    29.2   2.5                               22OCT1997     29.3   2.6

In the wake of Patricia and Olaf, much of the tropical world is quiet. No disturbances in the Pacific or the Atlantic, unusually quiet for the record season we have just experienced.  Just one lonely tropical disturbance in the unlikely location of the Arabian Sea.october 29, 2015blogtropicalactivitypage - Copy

A tropical storm forecast to become a Category 3 hurricane and then move into Yemen on the Saudi Arabian Peninsula.october 29, 2015blogtropicalactivitytropfour - CopyWater temperatures in Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean remain above normal despite El Niño .

october 29, 2015blogwatertempsanomally - Copy
The El Niño warming is along the Equator, the dark shading illustrates the +2.5 anomaly stretching across many miles of warm Equatorial waters.  The deep red stretching along the west coast of North America is a little bit of a wild card for the upcoming season. As discussed in El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle, the presents of the warm water could build a ridge,  much like the last four years. But it could also feed numerous Pacific storms with abundant moisture like we have rarely seen in recent years.

The Pacific jet stream is already showing signs of a seasonal change to stronger and more active. So fasten your  seatbelts this is really going to get wild. What we have seen in October,  the 1000 year flood in South Carolina, Utah flash floods, California highways buried in mud, the strongest hurricane, this is all just the beginning.  El Niño greatest influence is during the Northern Hemisphere winter.  And winter is just around the corner. Actually feels like winter today in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather events that the stronger El Niño events tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

 

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Patricia… Highest wind, Most rapid intensification

October 24, 2015

Hurricane Patricia has been crowned the strongest tropical system worldwide in terms of top winds, since 1970, when the satellite era began.  Hurricane Patricia is the only storm with posted sustained winds of 200mph.  Also, reconnaissance measured 200 mph winds.  Winds in excess of 200mph were measured in two separate flights 11 hours apart.

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 192 KT 053 / 3 NM 06:47:10Z

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 192 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49Z

A quick review of what is considered the strongest storms in term of sustained wind. Pressure and basin information added for comparison.

Patricia2015,… 175knots,  200mph,   883mb dropsonde, 879mb estimate Northeast Pacific

Haiyan2013, … 170 knots,  195mph,    895mb satellite estimate                     Northwest Pacific

Allen 1980, …  165knots,  190mph,    899mb dropsonde                                      North Atlantic

Tip   1979, …   165knots,  190mph,    870mb satellite estimate                         Northwest Pacific

 

Hurricane Patricia also set the record for intensification rate in a tropical system.

Hurricane Wilma did hold the record for pressure fall rate.

 

97mb in Hurricane Wilma in 24 hours

72mb in Hurricane Gilbert, September 1988 was previous record to Wilma.

100mb in Hurricane Wilma in 30 hours has rarely been approached.

 

24 hour comparison looking at the most recent Patricia numbers from actual National Hurricane Center Advisory.

======================================================================

400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

…PATRICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY…

LOCATION…14.3N 102.3W
ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI…565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB…28.94 INCHES

 

400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

…PATRICIA…
…THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD…
…POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY…

LOCATION…17.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…200 MPH…325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…880 MB…25.99 INCHES

 

 

400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015  980 MB

400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015     880 MB

So, … the New record for pressure fall rate in tropical systems established by Patricia is:

100mb in 24 hours, Wilma did 97mb in 2005, Gilbert did 72mb in 1988.

114mb in 30 hours, Wilma did 100mb.

—————————————————————————————————————–

So, …Patricia… highest wind … 200mph.

Most rapid intensification, … 100mb in 24 hours,

Beat the incredible Wilma,  97mb in 2005.

Speaking of Wilma, … 10 years ago, … October 24, 2005, 1132utcoctober 24, 2005 HurricaneWilmaoverSouth_Florida

 

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

 

A look back at the Atlantic’s Joaquin

October 22, 2015

As we watch Hurricane Olaf and now Hurricane Patricia in the Pacific, I want to take a look back at the Atlantic’s Joaquin.

Joaquin was not your typical Atlantic hurricane. The storm developed out of an upper level low that wandered westward from the Central Atlantic.  It slowly backed into the Bahamas before being booted out the big upper low that eventually helped drown South Carolina.

Below are eight sets of two satellite pictures, one set a day, from September 27 thru October 04. Standard infrared left, water vapor right.

September 27September 27, 2015 nohurricanes0100z - Copy

September 28September 28, 2015 nohurricanes1000z - Copy

September 29September 29, 2015 nohurricanes0600z - Copy

September 30September 30, 2015 nohurricanes0900z - Copy

October 01October 01, 2015 isthatahurricane0900z - Copy

October 02October 02, 2015 isthatahurricane0900z - Copy

October 03October 03, 2015 isthatahurricane0600z - Copy

October 04October 04, 2015 isthatahurricane0600z -2Copy

By the end of this picture sequence a healthy portion of South Carolina was displaced by 20 to 25 inches of rain.

Olaf and now Patricia are currently hurricanes in the Pacific.  Both of these tropical systems may have some influence on the U.S.

The above example shows how a direct hit is not necessary to inflict great damage.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

The Pacific tropical weather season is breaking records.

October 21, 2015

The Pacific tropical weather season is breaking records.

Phil Klotzbach is a Colorado State University tropical weather researcher and specialist who has filled the void since the well known Dr. Gray retired. In recent days he has made some amazing statements about the tropical weather season in the Pacific.

A couple of his observations are quite impressive in terms of our current El Niño discussion.

A record 14 named storms have occurred so far this season in the Central Pacific.  The previous record for total number of storms was 10 from 1982.

A record 8 named storms have formed within the Central Pacific basin.  The previous record was 4 from 1982.

The current state of the Pacific Ocean is breaking records set during one of the other great El Niño years, 1982, which is discussed at some length in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…

——————————————————————————————————————-

200 PM PDT MON OCT 19, 2015

…OLAF RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE…
…EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT…

———————————————————————————————————————–

With this advisory Olaf became the 21st Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this tropical season, 2015, or like since May, … also a new record.  So despite just two major hurricanes in the Atlantic this season and only one Category 4, the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, mainly the Pacific, is having a record year.  Hurricane Olaf is adding to that record.

A visible shot of Olaf at 145mph, near 143W, and only 11N, still some 1000 miles from Hawaii.october 20, 2015 olaffloater2245z - Copy

A quick visit with the spaghetti plots to illustrate the current model trend. Once again this season, not a forecast track you are going to see all that often associated with a Category 4 hurricane.

October 21, 2015blogspaghettiplots - Copy

Monday 19th 18z run at 210 hours reaches Wednesday Oct.28, 2015 12zoctober 19,2015 forecast 210hourswedoct2812z

Tuesday 20th 12z run at 192 hours reaches Wednesday Oct.28, 2015 12zoctober 20,2015 forecast 192hourswedoct2812z

The area of low pressure off the California Coast on both runs can be traced back to Olaf. It is only two runs out of many, most solutions do not bring Olaf to California.  But this passed week we saw from this blog that this model does show some skill even out as far as a week.

So a record tropical weather season in the Pacific has given us something else to watch.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

 

Maintaining a +2.4, Our event remains robust

October 20, 2015

The newest weekly sea surface temperatures have been posted with no big surprises. Maintaining a +2.4 for another week means our event remains robust. Trailing 1997’s  record pace by one tenth of a degree is almost as trivial as it sounds. The last seven weeks are just about a carbon copy of 1997’s record level.

02SEP2015      28.9   +2.1                             03SEP1997     28.9   +2.1
09SEP2015      29.0   +2.3                             10SEP1997     28.9   +2.2
16SEP2015      29.0   +2.3                             17SEP1997     28.9  + 2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   +2.3                             24SEP1997     28.9   +2.2
30SEP2015      29.1   +2.4                             01OCT1997     29.1  +2.4

07OCT2015      29.1  +2.4                             08OCT1997     29.2   +2.6
14OCT2015      29.1  +2.4                            15OCT1997     29.2   +2.5

Strong hurricanes usually don’t hang out near 140-150W latitude, the tropical Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii. Olaf is now a Category 4 with 140mph winds currently headed west in the general direction of Hawaii.  The storm’s existence as well as its location is natures sign or testimony that the El Niño warming of Eastern Pacific is in deed in progress. October 20, 2015hurricaneolaf0330z

The broader picture shows Hurricane Olaf in reference to Hawaii and the Eastern Pacific.

Tuesday October20, 2015  03zOctober 20, 2015 fulldiskwest0300z - Copy

The Nino 3.4 Region runs 120-160W, 5 degrees north and south of the Equator, or just south of where our hurricane is tracking.  So the storm has intensified very near the warm region of interest.  But in doing so, the circulation of the storm stirs up the ocean surface and actual works to lower the sea surface temperature through vigorous mixing.

So, our current weekly sea surface temperature might be a little higher if it were not for this developing hurricane right in the Nino3.4 neighborhood.

October 19, 2015 ninoweeklyalong with 12th - Copy

Covered the forecast for Monday October 19, 2015  12z in a couple of blogs.  Here are the actual satellite and model surface maps from Monday morning, and one of the forecast maps from 7 or 8 days ago.

Monday October 19, 2015  12zOctober 19, 2015 fulldiskwest1200z - Copy

GFS 06z run 006 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015  12zOctober 19, 2015forecast006hrfor 12z

GFS 00z run 204 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015  12zOctober 10, 2015 pacificforecast204hr

OK, a little surprised,  did not see the two panels side by side until this blog.  Usually there a few more differences with such comparisons, especially a forecast for a week away.  I may have to revisit such analysis in the near future.  The idea is to have some forewarning before yet another interstate highway becomes impassable.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

 

California rain: The Good, The Bad, and it can be Ugly

October 18, 2015

California rain: The Good, The Bad, and it can be Ugly.

The Good.YosemiteFalls15-10-18-11 - CopyJust an inch and a half of rain at 8000 feet and Yosemite Falls comes back to life.

The Bad.This image made from video provided by KABC-TV shows some of hundreds of big rigs and cars stranded on State Highway 58 near Mojave, Calif., Friday, Oct. 16, 2015, after torrential rains Thursday caused mudslides that carried away vehicles and closed roads about 70 miles north of Los Angeles. Rescuers threw ladders and tarps across mud up to 6 feet deep to help hundreds of trapped people from cars that got caught in a roiling river of mud along a major Southern California trucking route, a California Highway Patrol official said Friday in what he and other witnesses described as a chaotic scene. Amazingly, officials said, no deaths or injuries were reported. (KABC-TV via AP) MANDATORY CREDIT NO SALES TV OUTState Route 58 west of Mojave, California.  The rain and hail occurred Thursday afternoon. This picture is from midday Friday. (KABC via AP)

It can be UglyOctober 15, 2015californiaflashfloodrada61JPG - CopyInterstate 5 near Tejon Pass after the Thursday afternoon downpour. (CNN)

Route 58 is the red line, on the map below, running due east from Bakersfield.  Interstate 5 runs south from the “S” in Bakersfield into Los Angeles.October 15, 2015californiaflashfloodradar11 - Copy

Doppler Radar rainfall estimate for the Thursday October 15, 2015 thunderstorms.  The deep red is two and a half inches, the maroon color is closer to three.  The white dot near the “P” in Palmdale would indicate amounts greater than five inches.  The presences of golf ball size hail in these storms could mean these estimates are higher than actually rainfall.

So,  an inch of rain and Yosemite falls is back in business.  Two to three inches of rain and the main roads are a disastrous muddy mire.

 

New weekly update of ocean water temperature anomalies coming later today.

16SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           17SEP1997     28.9   2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           24SEP1997     28.9   2.2
30SEP2015      29.1   2.4                           01OCT1997    29.1   2.4

07OCT2015      29.1   2.4                           08OCT1997   29.2    2.6

14OCT2015      later today                       15OCT1997  29.2    2.5

 

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

 

 

First a brief review, impressive display of large hail and flash flooding

October 16, 2015

First a brief review of The Monthly Diagnostic Discussion from The Climate Prediction Center. This discussion was released on October 8 and is posted on the CPC website.

“During September, sea surface temperature  anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.  The Niño indices generally increased.  The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index values became more negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.  All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016.”

Once again, strong words from a government institution that usually stresses caution and discourages over reaction.

So this is serious stuff, even our conservative government specialists cannot deny the alarming warmth of the central and eastern Pacific or the potential for countrywide impacts this winter.

Despite a relatively quiet current weather pattern across most of the nation on Thursday, slow moving thunderstorms put on an impressive display of large hail and flash flooding in Northern Los Angeles County.

October 15, 2015californiaflashfloodradar1JPG - Copy

Radar summary,  mid-afternoon  Oct. 15, 2015

October 15, 2015lakehughesmudflowOct. 15, 2015 Los Angeles County flash flood.   (Photo via KTLA)

from Chapter V in El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…

“California responds to any tropical inundation pretty quickly and dramatically. So, watch California! When their streets become rivers and their desert bridges begin to wash out, it may be time to start filling the sandbags. Bad weather that begins in California will not end there, it will spread to other parts of the country.”

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Fall Color time, Cold pattern, New Book Cover

October 15, 2015

Fall Color time

A quick pause to make note of a special weekend, the middle of October, fall foliage time for a healthy portion of the nation.  Clouds, wind, and snow flurries across portions of New England should not discourage your pursuit of the perfect picture.

franconia notch, NH - 1

Cold pattern for much of the east for the upcoming weekend.

The two “H’s” over Minnesota and over Illinois guarantee a sparkling weekend for many.

October 15, 2015 northamerica66hrsatur18z

Anomalies in 3.4 Niño region grew from +1.7°C in July, top left, to +2.4°C in October, bottom left. Left chart is graphic representation of that increase.  Then compare left to right, similar but simpler than the chart in chapter 1 of the book, El Niño warming 2015 left, La Niña cooling 2010 to the right.

El Niño warming  29.1°C actual, +2.4°C anomaly, La Niña cooling  24.8°C actual, -1.9°C anomaly.  The difference is 4.3°C or 7.74°F almost 8°F or 85°F water compared to 77°F.

October 10, 2015bookcovercompare - Copy

The current anomaly is +2.4°C or 4.3°F.  The area of unusually warm water stretches for thousands of miles across the Pacific east of the dateline.  This is what all the excitement is about.  The warmest ocean water having changed its global position, changes weather patterns especially for the northern hemisphere winter season.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

E-Book update:

Look for my New cover and updated ONI & EQSOI charts which show the progress of the equatorial warming associated with this year’s El Niño.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

 

 

1997 had a warm early October, a little warmer than this year.

October 13, 2015

1997 had a warm early October, a little warmer than this year.

16SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           17SEP1997     28.9   2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           24SEP1997     28.9   2.2
30SEP2015      29.1   2.4                           01OCT1997    29.1   2.4

07OCT2015      29.1   2.4                           08OCT1997   29.2    2.6

No increase in water temperature, no change in the anomaly during the past week in the 3.4 Niño region.  1997 had an early October surge, 28.9°C to 29.2, so 1997 has the edge for the moment.  2015 so far has shown no such surge in October but trails 1997 by only one tenth of a degree in measured temp 29.1 to 29.2°C.

Despite this little weekly set back, concern about this upcoming event continues to grow, especially for California.

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena California, recently said, “This is as close as you’re going to get to a sure thing.” This El Niño, he said, is “too big to fail”.  Strong words from a government scientist that usually stresses caution and discourages over reaction.

He is speaking to the California media, trying to assure them rain is in deed on the way.  But with that rain, so desperately needed for drought relief, will also come floods and mud slides.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill