Milestone, ONI reaches +2.0

December 08, 2015

An ONI of +2.0 means El Niño is here, it is happening, and it is happening well into spring.

The book, and the blog, all in anticipation of the possibility of an ONI of +2.0. Everything discussed in the book and covered by Wild Bill’s Blog are a possibility for the winter and spring. Floods, flash floods, tornadoes, wind and winter storms that is, not necessarily 200mph hurricanes.  But record events, like Northern England this past weekend. The recent rain broke records set in the last El Niño in 2009.

We have followed the weekly anomalies and compared them to 1997 since late September, so this high ONI value is no big surprise.  But it does validate the investment in the subject. This is a much longer term average with fancy curve smoothing and high frequency filters. It makes the research scientist happy. Now the event is not just a curiosity, or some weatherman’s whim. It is statistically and mathematically significant. In the world of science, math is the foundation, … and Math says this El Niño is significant.

So batten down the hatches and call your neighbor when the weather is on. Use the quiet weather periods to prepare for the bad. Keep watch even when the forecast seems quiet and certain. Some weather patterns are predicable for several days, others change overnight. Overnight surprises could be inches of rain, or inches of snow, maybe from above freezing to below zero or destructive tornadoes.

While I would like to say “nothing like that in the current forecast”,   the 10 day outlook actually  looks rather eventful. Flooding in parts of the Pacific Northwest next few days, nasty system maybe severe central portions of the country over the weekend, followed by colder temperatures, …. and it all heads east, then repeats much of next week.

And maybe Southern California will see something in the next week or so, …but still waiting for the big Los Angeles storm  that says this El Niño is for real.

River of moisture headed into the Northwest on this Tuesday

water vapor followed by regular IR satellite.

December 08, 2015norhemvapormorph0500z - Copy

 

December 08, 2015westnorthhemiIR0800z - Copy

 

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Second storm in the series about to roar ashore

December 05, 2015

The first wave of low pressure that rolled onshore Thursday did produce some high wind. Frame below shows 36 hours of observations from a high wind location along with full disk satellite image of system pushing on shore.December 03, 2015 Bloglatestoregonwind2345zjpg - Copy

A closer view of highest winds observed at this location shows gust over 100mph at the height of the storm.December 03, 2015 Bloglatestoregonwind1800zjpg - Copy

Below an attempt to show location of Squaw Peak along the California Oregon border and further illustrate it is a real observation point accessible through NWS websites.  The observation below does have a time of 3:39EST. To match the wind speed and gusts to the observations above, look at the 12:39PST observation.December 03, 2015 Bloglatestoregonwind0803zjpg - Copy

And yes it snowed, at least for some, this is from Crater Lake National Park, elevation over 6000 feet.  Located just off the northeast corner of the map above.annesprings15-12-04-01

Mount Lassen and Manzanita Lake experience of brief clearing late on Friday after the storm brought snowfall to the area on Thursday and Thursday night.Lassen Peak15-12-04-03

Now the Second storm in the series is about to roar ashore

December 05, 2015westnorthhemiIR0000z - Copy

As forecast,  the jet stream across the Pacific has narrowed into a more concentrated flow directed right at the West Coast.

December 05, 2015ulldisknorhemi500mb0000z - Copy

The forecast map from 2 days ago showing the same west to east jet steam as  the  current analysis above.December 03, 2015bloggfs_npac_078_500_vort_ht - Copy

So the El Niño Winter has begun. The current storm track is way too far north to have much impact on Southern California at the moment. But with the recent November SST (sea surface temperatures) record in the 3.4 Niño region. Impact on Los Angeles and San Diego can only be considered imminent.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

 

Finally a Series of storms for California.

December 03, 2015

Today, the first in a series of early December storms will roll across portions of Oregon and Northern California.  Inches of rain and feet of snow driven by winds to hurricane force will impact this wide region Thursday the 3rd into Friday the 4th of December.

The image below is from late Wednesday, the storm is poised just off the coast.December 03, 2015westfulldiskIR0000z - Copy

Closer view 8 hours later, early Thursday morning 0800z. Solid cloud cover associated with steadier precipitation. Speckled clouds west side of storm system a sign of cold air streaming south and a vigorous strengthening system.  Big storm … today.

December 03, 2015 Bloglatest_west_0800ir4_nh - Copy

Forecast map for Thursday morning December 3rd from this  Blog post a week ago.November 26, 2015Bloggfs_npac_180_surf - Copy

Forecast map for Thursday morning December 3rd from Wednesday evening.

Compare storm location and strength of system approaching West Coast, also notice Southeast storm in reality has already moved out.December 03, 2015gfs_npac_012_1000_500_thick - Copy

So, this particular run of the model did a little better with timing on the West Coast system. As we look ahead a few more days to this weekend. This “particular run of the model” begins to take on the “atmospheric river” configuration that the West Coast and especially California needs to be ready for as the more serious winter storms appear to be upon us.December 03, 2015bloggfs_npac_078_1000_500_thick - Copy

A series of storms spread across the Pacific Ocean all headed toward our West Coast and portions of California, but not necessarily Los Angeles or San Diego, at least not at first. This first series of storms appears to target the Southern Cascades, the Siskiyou, and the Northern Sierra Nevada.  Southern California may do better with a system toward the end of the series around Thursday the 10th. December 03, 2015bloggfs_npac_078_500_vort_ht - Copy

It really is quite the chart. A straight shot right across the Pacific. The search for a good example of the Pacific “atmospheric river” for Chapter II of the book took me back to January of 2010.  Now here we are early December 2015 with one of the strongest  El Niño ever and the forecast model just starts spitting out great examples of this relatively rare phenomena.

The average SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly for November 2015 was +2.98. A three month running average of 1.50 is considered significant.

A long and eventful Meteorological Winter has indeed begun.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

 

A +2.98 means November SST’s were record warm.

December 01, 2015

Despite a slight decrease in weekly SST’s  this week, a +3.0 for the final week of the month was warm enough to give November a record high average. The average SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly for November 2015 was +2.98. The warmest month previously was January of 1983 at +2.79. The warmest month in record season of 1997 was December at +2.69.  Values used for my calculations listed below were retrieved from the CPC’s website.

———————————————————————————————————————-

Latest weekly SST’s for the 3.4 Niño region

04NOV2015        29.5   +2.8                             05NOV1997     29.2   +2.6
11NOV2015        29.7   +3.0                             12NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
18NOV2015        29.7   +3.1                             19NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
25NOV2015      29.6   +3.0                            26NOV1997     29.4   +2.8

Nov. average   29.6   +2.975                                                 29.3     +2.700

———————————————————————————————————————-

Warmest monthly SST’s for the 3.4 Niño region
YR   MON   NINO3.4    ANOM
1982  12      29.21    +2.64
1983   1        29.36    +2.79

1997  11     29.32    +2.67        (29.3     +2.700)
1997  12     29.26    +2.69
2015  10    29.15    +2.46

2015 11    29.60   +2.98

The monthly averages will be officially update on the CPC website later this week, we will revisit the subject at that time.

———————————————————————————————————————

A graphical representation of the current Eastern Pacific warming compared to last year and the year before.December 01, 2015BlogOctober2015SST - Copy

November 2014, last year, just a hint of the coming event.December 01, 2015BlogNovember2014SST - Copy

November 2013, two years ago, nothing of note in the eastern Pacific.December 01, 2015BlogNovember2013SST - Copy

This El Niño event is a big deal. I am afraid the real “fun” has barely begun.

Monday evening satellite image clearly showing the moisture connection from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific into North America. Tropical systems Rick and Sandra are long gone but the tropical connection to the 3.4 Niño region persists in the early days of December.

December 01, 2015westfulldisk0000z - Copy

Here is a couple of quick lines from Chapter IV of my book that illustrate why this connection can be a winter long problem.

“The impact of the 1983 El Niño was pretty far reaching right here in the U.S. A winter so wet, over such an expansive area, that two of our biggest river basins were still above flood stage entering the summer months. Pacific Ocean temperatures as warm as 1983 at this point in the season is NOT a good thing.”

“the two biggest floods on the Lower (Mississippi) River Basin, … have been during Pacific warming events.”

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving

November 26, 2015

thanksgiving_candles

  1. May this series of pictures be a metaphor for the Holiday, while its good to be comfortable in the fog of your immediate surroundings,  what wonders and perhaps dangers are revealed when our vision clears.

november 25, 2015yosemite2045z - Copy

november 25, 2015yosemite2245z - Copy

november 16, 2015yosemite2145z - Copy

2a. Models continue to tease a stormy weather pattern for much of the West Coast.  Not exactly the much hyped “pineapple express atmospheric river” event yet . But still a series of wet and windy storms in the early days of December for much of the West Coast.

November 26, 2015Bloggfs_npac_180_500_vort_ht

2b. 500millbar forecast above shows the air flow at mid levels of the atmosphere. Below,  the surface, where we can track the highs and lows and monitor moisture distribution.  With a brisk river of air flowing straight across the Pacific, the early targets are appear to be the Pacific Northwest and Northern California.  This is a forecast map for Thursday the 3rd. Recent model runs tend to hold off significant Southern California rain until the following week so stay tuned. Just like,  it is not really winter in the East until it snows in New York City. In the sphere of public opinion, It is really not a big El Niño verification until the streets look like rivers in Los Angeles and San Diego and that is not in the forecast in the map below. So we watch and wait.November 26, 2015Bloggfs_npac_180_surf

3. It is the 65th Anniversary of the Great Appalachian Storm.  Definitely a noteworthy storm.  It is remembered for the coldest November temperatures in the south, single numbers in Birmingham and Atlanta.  It is remembered for 100 mph winds in New Jersey and New Hampshire. And for some it was a blizzard, over 30 inches of wind blown snow paralyzed portions of Ohio and West Virginia.

In November of 1950 the ONI was -0.7 indicating  La Niña.

Below 500millbar  jet steam flow and old time surface map for November 26, 1950.November 26, 2015Blogsurface500ht - Copy

4. During the colder weather season snowfall tends to take place near or under such “bubbles ” or  “cutoff lows” in the jet stream flow as shown with the historic storm above.

Below, the current 500millbar chart would suggest more snow on this Holiday across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West.

November 26, 2015Blogcurrent500ht

5. A very busy chart below, please be careful if you must travel this Holiday.

November 26, 2015 Warningspage0215z

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

A +3.1 is a most extraordinary weekly reading

November 24, 2015

The weekly sea surface temperature anomalies posted for the week of November 18 continue to climb in the  3.4 Niño region of the Pacific. This year’s sea surface temperatures have surged ahead of the record pace of 1997 El Niño .

04NOV2015        29.5   +2.8                                 05NOV1997     29.2   +2.6
11NOV2015        29.7   +3.0                                 12NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
18NOV2015      29.7   +3.1                             19NOV1997     29.3   +2.7

A +3.1  is a most extraordinary weekly reading.  It will mean a lot more if this extremely high reading will linger for the next two or three months.  If these extreme anomalies do last through January into February, it will be a very interesting winter indeed.

Map below clearly illustrates the El Niño warming stretching for 6000 miles along the equator from the South American coast to near 180 degrees or the International Dateline.November 18, 2015ninoweeklyanomaliesglobal - Copy

Current long range forecast showing signs of wetter weather pattern,  an “atmospheric river” type configuration across the Pacific and into the West Coast including California.

November 23, 2015 18zrungfs_npac171_500_vort_ht

Despite a few healthy storms farther north, the Southern Sierra Nevada still look rather light on the snow cover. All this should change with the Holiday storm later this week and the pattern above developing by early next week. Note the green grass on foreground hills, a sign of some recent moisture.

november 23, 2015mororockalta1845z - Copy

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Forecast map from a week ago.

November 18, 2015

I shared the below forecast map below in this blog a week ago, November 11.

Forecast map of 500mb flow from the Nov 10 18z run for Thursday  Nov 19, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central Time.November 11, 2015Blogforecast500210hrnov1912z

Actual 500mb flow, and water vapor image from Tuesday evening below,

36 hours ahead of the forecast map above, but pretty good on position and strength of major features, especially the big storm centered on the Kansas, Oklahoma border.  Also note digging trough across western Canada and the big ridge along the east coast. Forecast model did pretty well with second significant storm in two weeks.November 18, 2015northamerica500mb0005z

Notice the center of the storm on satellite image below matches position of 500mb low  above.november 18, 2015satellitepicwatervapor0145z

Afternoon and sunset snapshot showing only thin snow cover high in the Southern Sierra after this weeks fast moving storm.november 17, 2015baldmountafternoonnorth - Copy

november 17, 2015baldmountsunsetnorth - Copy

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Current weekly numbers exceed strongest El Niño year.

November 17,  2015

The most recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies continue to climb in the  3.4 Niño region of the Pacific. After trailing for several weeks earlier this season,  this year’s sea surface temperatures have surged ahead of the record pace of 1997 El Niño .

11NOV2015      29.7   +3.0                             12NOV1997     29.3          +2.7

November 17, 2015 BlogSSTanomalies30 - Copy

One more time, … current weekly readings show this year is ahead of the record season.  The current weekly numbers exceed the two strong El Niño years of 1982 and 1997.

We are truly witnessing history, … and much more history is soon to be written.  Again a side by side comparison, 2015 and the record 1997,  the last four weeks of sea surface temperature anomalies.

21OCT2015      29.2   +2.5                             22OCT1997     29.3   +2.6
28OCT2015     29.4   +2.7                             29OCT1997     29.2   +2.6

04NOV2015      29.5   +2.8                             05NOV1997     29.2    +2.6
11NOV2015      29.7   +3.0                             12NOV1997     29.3    +2.7

 

The NWS Warnings page on Monday evening nicely illustrates the current storm.  Winter Storm and Blizzard Warnings sitting right next to Tornado Watches and Warnings.  This snapshot catches 6 Tornado Warnings in effect at the same time.  That is a little unusual and scary, this activity is occurring after dark in mid November.

November 17, 2015 Warningspage0050z

A little taste of what the storm left behind in California.november 16, 2015yosemite2245z - Copy

 

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

It is happening, … the focus is shifting

November 12, 2015

A quick update on the forecast models, despite various similar configurations during the day on Wednesday, this overnight run looks very much like yesterday’s stormy run, except a day early. I like this forecast panel because its a great illustration of high amplitude flow. Big storms but also big highs. If this forecast panel is close to actual, then while a storm rages in the middle of the country the east coast will feel like summertime in November. One region getting pounded and destroyed while another area is dry and pleasant and cannot imagine what all the fuss is about.

In Chapter 2 of my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle… I describe how  El Niño may fuel a series of storms over a particular region, and those storms release energy. That released energy can build big warm dry ridges. I do believe forecast panel below could be considered evidence of El Niño already hard at work disrupting North America’s weather pattern.

It is happening, … the focus is shifting from the Pacific tropical season to the active and sometime deceiving  winter pattern across America.

The possibility for next week:

Forecast map of 500mb flow 00z run for November 18, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central TimeNovember 12, 2015Blogforecast500156hrnov1812z

The 500mb map above shows the flow, the jet stream.

The surface map below shows the moisture, rain and snow, and temperature. Where the green shading occurs with the blue lines, northwest of the “L” in Kansas, snow is the more likely form of precipitation. The purple line down the Mississippi Valley is probably severe weather with flooding rain. With the balled up nature of the 500 flow the band of precipitation would move rather slowly increasing the flood threat.

Forecast map of surface features 00z run for November 18, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central TimeNovember 12, 2015Blogforecastsurf156hrnov1812z

So, big hook or broken 9 of precipitation draped across the north central states down to the Gulf Coast in the forecast for next Wednesday.

And Deja Vu, from national radar and satellite from this Wednesday evening November 11, 2015, a big broken 9 draped over the of the north central part of the country.

El Niño may fuel a series of storms over a particular region, …

November 12, 2015nationalradar0345z

 

November 12, 2015nationalsatellite0345z - Copy

Picture of the Day shows a snow covered Mt. Lassen in the afternoon sun.                               The mountains of Northern and Central California have whiten in early November as some moisture has actually worked into the region.

Lassen Peak15-11-11-01

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

 

 

+ 2.8 in the 3.4 Niño region, stormy weather continues

November 11, 2015

The most recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies continue to show extreme warming in the  3.4 Niño region of the Pacific. After trailing for a few weeks in October, this years sea surface temperatures have pushed ahead of the record pace of 1997 in the last two weeks.

07OCT2015      29.1   +2.4                             08OCT1997     29.2  + 2.6
14OCT2015      29.1   +2.4                             15OCT1997     29.2  + 2.5
21OCT2015      29.2   +2.5                             22OCT1997     29.3   +2.6
28OCT2015      29.4  + 2.7                              29OCT1997    29.2   +2.6

04NOV2015      29.5  + 2.8                           05NOV1997     29.2  + 2.6

The + 2.8 posted for a week in early November far exceeds the most recent monthly ONI value for October which was +1.7.  So the current ONI value is still likely to increase in the next month or two as the warmer temperatures from recent weeks are factored into the longer term averages.

So we are still talking truly serious historical crap here.

We need to keep an eye on what is next.

Currently that means beware of severe weather on Veteran’s Day in central parts of the country.  November 11, 2015Blogconvective outlooknov1112z

The “Enhanced” area is the scale’s orange alert.  As outlined in the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook, “THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND  TORNADOES MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ”

Forecast map of 500mb flow 12z run for November 11, 2015 at 21z or 3pm Central Time November 11, 2015Blogforecast500033hrnov1121z

If above produces severe weather, tornadoes and blizzard conditions.

What can we expect from something that looks like below.

Forecast map of 500mb flow 12z run for November 19, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central TimeNovember 11, 2015Blogforecast500216hrnov1912z

Forecast map of 500mb flow 18z run for November 19, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central TimeNovember 11, 2015Blogforecast500210hrnov1912z

Still 8 days and many models runs away, but definitely the type of bizarre weather pattern that folks in the central part of the country need to know about in advance. Everyone could use some forewarning and preparations before a storm of this magnitude.

October should have been the quiet pleasant month, November gets stormier in the “average” year. With a current weekly SST anomaly of +2.8,  this November is not expected to be “average”.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Cover2

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill