Warm in the days before Christmas for a third year.

December 18, 2015Uncategorizedthird year, warm Pre-Christmasadmin

December 18, 2015

It looks like warm weather across the parts of the East in the days before Christmas for the third year in a row.

Maximum temperatures December 22, 2013, … 60’s to low 70s across Mid-Atlantic States

Maximum temperatures December 24, 2014, … not as warm as 2013, but well above freezing. 60 at Pittsburgh however, is only 2 cooler than its 2013 reading.

Forecast for this December 23, 2015 also looks quite warm. The forecast for Pittsburgh is for a daytime high near 60. This will make three years in a row Pittsburgh will have been near 60 degrees in the days before Christmas. Normal high for December 23 for Pittsburgh is 37, making a high of 60, 23 degrees above normal.

Well below normal temperatures were experienced in Pittsburgh on December 22, 1989 when the high was only 7 above, and December 25, 1983 the high for Pittsburgh was zero.

So do not move to Pittsburgh and expect 60 degree pre-Christmas weather every year, but right now it certainly is in the forecast again this year, for the third year in a row.

Red lines in the image above relate to above freezing temperatures. Note no blue line anywhere near Pennsylvania on this Dec. 23. How are today’s kids suppose to relate to “A Charles Brown Christmas” when there is no ice on the ponds and no snow on the ground for the third year in a row.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Feeling the effects of warm Pacific water

December 14, 2015UncategorizedAnnie Springs, record warm weekendadmin

December 14, 2015

Various conditions at the entrance to Crater Lake National Park at times during the past week.

ANNIE SPRINGS, OR. ANSO3 (SNOTEL)
Elev: 6010 ft; Latitude: 42.87007; Longitude: 122.16518 snow total

(PST)				(f)	Depth(inches)	Precip(inches)

06 Dec 11:00 pm PST

23.00

11.50

Above recent heavy snow with temperatures slight above freezing, below rain and 42.

07 Dec 2:00 pm PST

21.00

12.20

Finally colder, slightly below freezing air, several days later and the snow depth doubles from 21 to 42 inches. So what you cannot see is nearly four feet of snow on the ground at the lowest elevation in Crater Lake National Park.

12 Dec 2:00 pm PST

42.00

17.20

All the above quite the contrast to a record warm weekend. Sunday was the second weekend day of records highs in mid December over parts of the eastern half of the nation.

We were very lucky there was not more serious severe weather this past weekend.

Record warm mid December temperatures and a favorable 500mb flow for severe weather were both present this weekend in the middle of the country. Map on the left from this Sunday evening 00z the 14th, in the blue on the right, Sunday morning November 22, 1992, the middle of a 3 day tornado outbreak.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

New storm spreads threats south into California.

December 10, 2015Uncategorizedinto California., New stormadmin

December 10, 2015

New storm spreads threats south into California.

Below one of the last visible pictures of the day showing the next system approaching.

Below are some rather strong statements from the NWS late Wednesday concerning various Marine threats as far south as Ventura County in Southern California. Sounds more like an El Niño season for Southern California, but this is not the big wet pattern that is highly anticipated for LA and San Diego, just a passing wave. The hope of course, in time, more waves and a jet stream a little farther south and an active winter is in business.

709 PM PST WED DEC 9 2015

LARGE POWERFUL SWELL EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…

A LARGE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BREAKING WAVES AT THE MORRO BAY AND VENTURA HARBOR ENTRANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE A HISTORY OF
CAPSIZING VESSELS OF VARIOUS SIZES RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR
DEATH…EVEN TO THE MOST EXPERIENCED MARINERS. MARINERS ARE URGED
TO STAY CLEAR OF THESE HARBOR ENTRANCES.

* IMPACTS…THE CENTRAL COAST COULD SEE SURF FROM 16 TO 22 FEET.
BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION COULD SEE SURF FROM 8 TO 12
FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE WAVES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO DAMAGE COASTAL STRUCTURES…SUCH AS PIERS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN AND AROUND BEACH AREAS.

Below, image showing trail of water vapor across Pacific into the West Coast. Another trail of moisture stretches from the Caribbean across the Atlantic to the British Isles. Both areas have seen flooding rains in recent days.

Standard full disk IR showing Pacific system racing toward West Coast. But also shows our El Niño region feeding clouds across Mexico and into the Atlantic. Here is a rare look at simultaneous full disk images showing a trail of clouds from the tropical Pacific all the way to Europe. Between our Pacific Northwest and the British Isles I would not think England would see the more serious flood because of excess El Niño moisture. But these current images tell a clear story. West Coast flooding could be a worse if there were a direct link to the El Niño region of the Pacific.

All this active West Coast weather is not only finally going to bring some increment weather to Southern California. But will push east into the United States and bring many a stormy weekend. More on all that in the next day or two. Think ahead, stay safe.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Milestone, ONI reaches +2.0

December 8, 2015UncategorizedONI reaches +2.0admin

December 08, 2015

An ONI of +2.0 means El Niño is here, it is happening, and it is happening well into spring.

The book, and the blog, all in anticipation of the possibility of an ONI of +2.0. Everything discussed in the book and covered by Wild Bill’s Blog are a possibility for the winter and spring. Floods, flash floods, tornadoes, wind and winter storms that is, not necessarily 200mph hurricanes. But record events, like Northern England this past weekend. The recent rain broke records set in the last El Niño in 2009.

We have followed the weekly anomalies and compared them to 1997 since late September, so this high ONI value is no big surprise. But it does validate the investment in the subject. This is a much longer term average with fancy curve smoothing and high frequency filters. It makes the research scientist happy. Now the event is not just a curiosity, or some weatherman’s whim. It is statistically and mathematically significant. In the world of science, math is the foundation, … and Math says this El Niño is significant.

So batten down the hatches and call your neighbor when the weather is on. Use the quiet weather periods to prepare for the bad. Keep watch even when the forecast seems quiet and certain. Some weather patterns are predicable for several days, others change overnight. Overnight surprises could be inches of rain, or inches of snow, maybe from above freezing to below zero or destructive tornadoes.

While I would like to say “nothing like that in the current forecast”, the 10 day outlook actually looks rather eventful. Flooding in parts of the Pacific Northwest next few days, nasty system maybe severe central portions of the country over the weekend, followed by colder temperatures, …. and it all heads east, then repeats much of next week.

And maybe Southern California will see something in the next week or so, …but still waiting for the big Los Angeles storm that says this El Niño is for real.

River of moisture headed into the Northwest on this Tuesday

water vapor followed by regular IR satellite.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Second storm in the series about to roar ashore

December 5, 2015Uncategorized100mph, November SST, Second stormadmin

December 05, 2015

The first wave of low pressure that rolled onshore Thursday did produce some high wind. Frame below shows 36 hours of observations from a high wind location along with full disk satellite image of system pushing on shore.

A closer view of highest winds observed at this location shows gust over 100mph at the height of the storm.

Below an attempt to show location of Squaw Peak along the California Oregon border and further illustrate it is a real observation point accessible through NWS websites. The observation below does have a time of 3:39EST. To match the wind speed and gusts to the observations above, look at the 12:39PST observation.

And yes it snowed, at least for some, this is from Crater Lake National Park, elevation over 6000 feet. Located just off the northeast corner of the map above.

Mount Lassen and Manzanita Lake experience of brief clearing late on Friday after the storm brought snowfall to the area on Thursday and Thursday night.

Now the Second storm in the series is about to roar ashore

As forecast, the jet stream across the Pacific has narrowed into a more concentrated flow directed right at the West Coast.

The forecast map from 2 days ago showing the same west to east jet steam as the current analysis above.

So the El Niño Winter has begun. The current storm track is way too far north to have much impact on Southern California at the moment. But with the recent November SST (sea surface temperatures) record in the 3.4 Niño region. Impact on Los Angeles and San Diego can only be considered imminent.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Finally a Series of storms for California.

December 3, 2015Uncategorizedatmospheric river, Northern California, Series of stormsadmin

December 03, 2015

Today, the first in a series of early December storms will roll across portions of Oregon and Northern California. Inches of rain and feet of snow driven by winds to hurricane force will impact this wide region Thursday the 3rd into Friday the 4th of December.

The image below is from late Wednesday, the storm is poised just off the coast.

Closer view 8 hours later, early Thursday morning 0800z. Solid cloud cover associated with steadier precipitation. Speckled clouds west side of storm system a sign of cold air streaming south and a vigorous strengthening system. Big storm … today.

Forecast map for Thursday morning December 3rd from this Blog post a week ago.

Forecast map for Thursday morning December 3rd from Wednesday evening.

Compare storm location and strength of system approaching West Coast, also notice Southeast storm in reality has already moved out.

So, this particular run of the model did a little better with timing on the West Coast system. As we look ahead a few more days to this weekend. This “particular run of the model” begins to take on the “atmospheric river” configuration that the West Coast and especially California needs to be ready for as the more serious winter storms appear to be upon us.

A series of storms spread across the Pacific Ocean all headed toward our West Coast and portions of California, but not necessarily Los Angeles or San Diego, at least not at first. This first series of storms appears to target the Southern Cascades, the Siskiyou, and the Northern Sierra Nevada. Southern California may do better with a system toward the end of the series around Thursday the 10th.

It really is quite the chart. A straight shot right across the Pacific. The search for a good example of the Pacific “atmospheric river” for Chapter II of the book took me back to January of 2010. Now here we are early December 2015 with one of the strongest El Niño ever and the forecast model just starts spitting out great examples of this relatively rare phenomena.

The average SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly for November 2015 was +2.98. A three month running average of 1.50 is considered significant.

A long and eventful Meteorological Winter has indeed begun.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

A +2.98 means November SST’s were record warm.

December 1, 2015Uncategorized+2.98, record highadmin

December 01, 2015

Despite a slight decrease in weekly SST’s this week, a +3.0 for the final week of the month was warm enough to give November a record high average. The average SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly for November 2015 was +2.98. The warmest month previously was January of 1983 at +2.79. The warmest month in record season of 1997 was December at +2.69. Values used for my calculations listed below were retrieved from the CPC’s website.

———————————————————————————————————————-

Latest weekly SST’s for the 3.4 Niño region

04NOV2015     29.5   +2.8                             05NOV1997     29.2   +2.6
11NOV2015        29.7   +3.0                             12NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
18NOV2015       29.7   +3.1                             19NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
25NOV2015      29.6   +3.0                           26NOV1997     29.4   +2.8

Nov. average 29.6 +2.975 29.3 +2.700

———————————————————————————————————————-

Warmest monthly SST’s for the 3.4 Niño region
YR   MON   NINO3.4    ANOM
1982 12      29.21    +2.64
1983   1        29.36    +2.79

1997 11     29.32    +2.67        (29.3     +2.700)
1997 12     29.26    +2.69
2015 10    29.15    +2.46

2015 11 29.60 +2.98

The monthly averages will be officially update on the CPC website later this week, we will revisit the subject at that time.

———————————————————————————————————————

A graphical representation of the current Eastern Pacific warming compared to last year and the year before.

November 2014, last year, just a hint of the coming event.

November 2013, two years ago, nothing of note in the eastern Pacific.

This El Niño event is a big deal. I am afraid the real “fun” has barely begun.

Monday evening satellite image clearly showing the moisture connection from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific into North America. Tropical systems Rick and Sandra are long gone but the tropical connection to the 3.4 Niño region persists in the early days of December.

Here is a couple of quick lines from Chapter IV of my book that illustrate why this connection can be a winter long problem.

“The impact of the 1983 El Niño was pretty far reaching right here in the U.S. A winter so wet, over such an expansive area, that two of our biggest river basins were still above flood stage entering the summer months. Pacific Ocean temperatures as warm as 1983 at this point in the season is NOT a good thing.”

“the two biggest floods on the Lower (Mississippi) River Basin, … have been during Pacific warming events.”

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill.

Happy Thanksgiving

November 26, 2015Uncategorized"cutoff lows", stormy weather patternadmin

November 26, 2015

May this series of pictures be a metaphor for the Holiday, while its good to be comfortable in the fog of your immediate surroundings, what wonders and perhaps dangers are revealed when our vision clears.

2a. Models continue to tease a stormy weather pattern for much of the West Coast. Not exactly the much hyped “pineapple express atmospheric river” event yet . But still a series of wet and windy storms in the early days of December for much of the West Coast.

2b. 500millbar forecast above shows the air flow at mid levels of the atmosphere. Below, the surface, where we can track the highs and lows and monitor moisture distribution. With a brisk river of air flowing straight across the Pacific, the early targets are appear to be the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. This is a forecast map for Thursday the 3rd. Recent model runs tend to hold off significant Southern California rain until the following week so stay tuned. Just like, it is not really winter in the East until it snows in New York City. In the sphere of public opinion, It is really not a big El Niño verification until the streets look like rivers in Los Angeles and San Diego and that is not in the forecast in the map below. So we watch and wait.

3. It is the 65th Anniversary of the Great Appalachian Storm. Definitely a noteworthy storm. It is remembered for the coldest November temperatures in the south, single numbers in Birmingham and Atlanta. It is remembered for 100 mph winds in New Jersey and New Hampshire. And for some it was a blizzard, over 30 inches of wind blown snow paralyzed portions of Ohio and West Virginia.

In November of 1950 the ONI was -0.7 indicating La Niña.

Below 500millbar jet steam flow and old time surface map for November 26, 1950.

4. During the colder weather season snowfall tends to take place near or under such “bubbles ” or “cutoff lows” in the jet stream flow as shown with the historic storm above.

Below, the current 500millbar chart would suggest more snow on this Holiday across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West.

5. A very busy chart below, please be careful if you must travel this Holiday.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

A +3.1 is a most extraordinary weekly reading

November 24, 2015Uncategorized"atmospheric river" type configuration, +3.1admin

November 24, 2015

The weekly sea surface temperature anomalies posted for the week of November 18 continue to climb in the 3.4 Niño region of the Pacific. This year’s sea surface temperatures have surged ahead of the record pace of 1997 El Niño .

04NOV2015        29.5   +2.8                                05NOV1997     29.2   +2.6
11NOV2015        29.7   +3.0                                12NOV1997     29.3   +2.7
18NOV2015      29.7   +3.1                             19NOV1997     29.3   +2.7

A +3.1 is a most extraordinary weekly reading. It will mean a lot more if this extremely high reading will linger for the next two or three months. If these extreme anomalies do last through January into February, it will be a very interesting winter indeed.

Map below clearly illustrates the El Niño warming stretching for 6000 miles along the equator from the South American coast to near 180 degrees or the International Dateline.

Current long range forecast showing signs of wetter weather pattern, an “atmospheric river” type configuration across the Pacific and into the West Coast including California.

Despite a few healthy storms farther north, the Southern Sierra Nevada still look rather light on the snow cover. All this should change with the Holiday storm later this week and the pattern above developing by early next week. Note the green grass on foreground hills, a sign of some recent moisture.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Forecast map from a week ago.

November 18, 2015Uncategorized500mb flow, Forecast, Kansas, Oklahoma borderadmin

November 18, 2015

I shared the below forecast map below in this blog a week ago, November 11.

Forecast map of 500mb flow from the Nov 10 18z run for Thursday Nov 19, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central Time.

Actual 500mb flow, and water vapor image from Tuesday evening below,

36 hours ahead of the forecast map above, but pretty good on position and strength of major features, especially the big storm centered on the Kansas, Oklahoma border. Also note digging trough across western Canada and the big ridge along the east coast. Forecast model did pretty well with second significant storm in two weeks.

Notice the center of the storm on satellite image below matches position of 500mb low above.

Afternoon and sunset snapshot showing only thin snow cover high in the Southern Sierra after this weeks fast moving storm.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Wild Bill’s Weather Blog

…..All weather…All the time!

Warm in the days before Christmas for a third year.

Feeling the effects of warm Pacific water

New storm spreads threats south into California.

Milestone, ONI reaches +2.0

Second storm in the series about to roar ashore

Finally a Series of storms for California.

A +2.98 means November SST’s were record warm.

Happy Thanksgiving

A +3.1 is a most extraordinary weekly reading

Forecast map from a week ago.