Current weekly numbers exceed strongest El Niño year.

November 17, 2015Uncategorized+3.0, Blizzard and Tornado Warningsadmin

November 17, 2015

The most recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies continue to climb in the 3.4 Niño region of the Pacific. After trailing for several weeks earlier this season, this year’s sea surface temperatures have surged ahead of the record pace of 1997 El Niño .

11NOV2015 29.7 +3.0 12NOV1997 29.3 +2.7

One more time, … current weekly readings show this year is ahead of the record season. The current weekly numbers exceed the two strong El Niño years of 1982 and 1997.

We are truly witnessing history, … and much more history is soon to be written. Again a side by side comparison, 2015 and the record 1997, the last four weeks of sea surface temperature anomalies.

21OCT2015 29.2 +2.5 22OCT1997 29.3 +2.6
28OCT2015 29.4 +2.7 29OCT1997 29.2 +2.6

04NOV2015 29.5 +2.8 05NOV1997 29.2 +2.6
11NOV2015 29.7 +3.0 12NOV1997 29.3 +2.7

The NWS Warnings page on Monday evening nicely illustrates the current storm. Winter Storm and Blizzard Warnings sitting right next to Tornado Watches and Warnings. This snapshot catches 6 Tornado Warnings in effect at the same time. That is a little unusual and scary, this activity is occurring after dark in mid November.

A little taste of what the storm left behind in California.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

It is happening, … the focus is shifting

November 12, 2015Uncategorized"L" in Kansas, big broken 9admin

November 12, 2015

A quick update on the forecast models, despite various similar configurations during the day on Wednesday, this overnight run looks very much like yesterday’s stormy run, except a day early. I like this forecast panel because its a great illustration of high amplitude flow. Big storms but also big highs. If this forecast panel is close to actual, then while a storm rages in the middle of the country the east coast will feel like summertime in November. One region getting pounded and destroyed while another area is dry and pleasant and cannot imagine what all the fuss is about.

In Chapter 2 of my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle… I describe how El Niño may fuel a series of storms over a particular region, and those storms release energy. That released energy can build big warm dry ridges. I do believe forecast panel below could be considered evidence of El Niño already hard at work disrupting North America’s weather pattern.

It is happening, … the focus is shifting from the Pacific tropical season to the active and sometime deceiving winter pattern across America.

The possibility for next week:

Forecast map of 500mb flow 00z run for November 18, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central Time

The 500mb map above shows the flow, the jet stream.

The surface map below shows the moisture, rain and snow, and temperature. Where the green shading occurs with the blue lines, northwest of the “L” in Kansas, snow is the more likely form of precipitation. The purple line down the Mississippi Valley is probably severe weather with flooding rain. With the balled up nature of the 500 flow the band of precipitation would move rather slowly increasing the flood threat.

Forecast map of surface features 00z run for November 18, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central Time

So, big hook or broken 9 of precipitation draped across the north central states down to the Gulf Coast in the forecast for next Wednesday.

And Deja Vu, from national radar and satellite from this Wednesday evening November 11, 2015, a big broken 9 draped over the of the north central part of the country.

El Niño may fuel a series of storms over a particular region, …

Picture of the Day shows a snow covered Mt. Lassen in the afternoon sun. The mountains of Northern and Central California have whiten in early November as some moisture has actually worked into the region.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

+ 2.8 in the 3.4 Niño region, stormy weather continues

November 11, 2015Uncategorized+2.8, severe centraladmin

November 11, 2015

The most recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies continue to show extreme warming in the 3.4 Niño region of the Pacific. After trailing for a few weeks in October, this years sea surface temperatures have pushed ahead of the record pace of 1997 in the last two weeks.

07OCT2015      29.1   +2.4                             08OCT1997     29.2 + 2.6
14OCT2015      29.1   +2.4                             15OCT1997     29.2 + 2.5
21OCT2015      29.2   +2.5                             22OCT1997     29.3   +2.6
28OCT2015      29.4 + 2.7                              29OCT1997    29.2   +2.6

04NOV2015 29.5 + 2.8 05NOV1997 29.2 + 2.6

The + 2.8 posted for a week in early November far exceeds the most recent monthly ONI value for October which was +1.7. So the current ONI value is still likely to increase in the next month or two as the warmer temperatures from recent weeks are factored into the longer term averages.

So we are still talking truly serious historical crap here.

We need to keep an eye on what is next.

Currently that means beware of severe weather on Veteran’s Day in central parts of the country.

The “Enhanced” area is the scale’s orange alert. As outlined in the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook, “THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ”

Forecast map of 500mb flow 12z run for November 11, 2015 at 21z or 3pm Central Time

If above produces severe weather, tornadoes and blizzard conditions.

What can we expect from something that looks like below.

Forecast map of 500mb flow 12z run for November 19, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central Time

Forecast map of 500mb flow 18z run for November 19, 2015 at 12z or 6am Central Time

Still 8 days and many models runs away, but definitely the type of bizarre weather pattern that folks in the central part of the country need to know about in advance. Everyone could use some forewarning and preparations before a storm of this magnitude.

October should have been the quiet pleasant month, November gets stormier in the “average” year. With a current weekly SST anomaly of +2.8, this November is not expected to be “average”.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

above normal rainfall, no disasters

November 5, 2015Uncategorizedabove normal rainfall, no disastersadmin

November 05, 2015

A few pictures tell the story.

The layered clouds indicate strengthening mid level winds in the pre-storm environment.

November 01, 2015

November 03, 2015 The storm clouds swirl then clear.

November 04, 2015 California is quite excited about their early snow.

November 01, 2015 Again, before the storm

November 03, 2015 And then after, … runoff. California’s new liquid gold.Thanks to the Yosemite Conservancy for their many windows into this extraordinary park.

Rainfall in Yosemite Valley was 3.37 in October, and 2.57 the 1st 4 days of November, that is 5.94 in 5 weeks.

Normal for the period is near 2.72, …so above normal rainfall in California where they need it and no disasters. Enjoy it! But don’t get used to it. No disasters that is. The real rainy season hasn’t even started yet.

Despite a wintry scene from 7500 feet looking across the high Sierra, no snow accumulation visible at 4000 feet in the valley.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

A little snow in the Sierra, +2.7 most impressive

November 3, 2015Uncategorized+ 2.7, Sierra snowadmin

November 03, 2015

A sign of the changing season as well as a sign that rare moisture is beginning to arrive in the still parched Sierra Nevada. First picture at 11:23 am looks foggy but look closely and you can see the snowflakes against the gray sky.

The next picture looks like 2:43pm, over three hours later, and you can see the accumulation on the conifers.

Thanks to the Yosemite Conservancy for their many windows into this extraordinary park. This is the sentinel dome view with a camera elevation near 7500 feet.

The weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in the 3.4 Niño region of the Pacific continue to be impressive, especially when compared to 1997. The most recent reading of +2.7 is the warmest weekly value since December 1997, when that event was near its peak. October weekly values averaging +2.5 will most certainly have an effect on the more complex three month running average.

07OCT2015        29.1 +2.4                             08OCT1997     29.2 +2.6
14OCT2015         29.1 +2.4                             15OCT1997     29.2 +2.5
21OCT2015         29.2 +2.5                             22OCT1997     29.3 +2.6
28OCT2015       29.4 + 2.7                             29OCT1997    29.2 +2.6

average 2.50 average 2.58

Below the most recent posting from the Climate Prediction center and the weekly expert discussion. Weekly numbers for 1997 and 2015 run along the side. When I published the book the weekly reading in the 3.4 Niño region was +1.7. A month later updates were made to include a weekly anomaly reading of +2.4. This posting shows +2.7 in the 3.4 Niño region.

I present all this to impress you with the fact, that we are all in serious trouble. The 20 inch floods of October were not just a spell of bad weather. They are the product of a periodic oceanographic and meteorological worldwide teleconnection otherwise known as El Niño. The numbers presented above illustrate that our current 2015 event is as strong as the 1997 event and still growing.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Three historic 20 inch flood events in the last 5 weekends

November 1, 2015Uncategorizedhistoric 20 inch rain eventsadmin

November 02, 2015

In theory, the most significant impacts from El Niño can be expected across North America during the winter months. So, three historic 20 inch rain events in the 5 weekends of October seems a little excessive. Display below shows Texas rainfall for the last 8 or 9 days actually, although the label says 14 days. The white shading south of Dallas is associated with the 20 inch rains related to Patricia over a week ago. The white shading south of Austin combines Patricia rains with what happen Friday morning to give another area of 20 inch totals for the 8 or 9 days. And more white shading near Houston, much of that fell Friday night into Saturday morning.

During the last two weekends of the month it has been Texas and Louisiana underwater, but back at the beginning of the month it was South Carolina. Check out the 30 day totals for October, four different areas with rainfall totals in excess of 20 inches.

In the spirit of two sides to every story, the positive impact of the recent floods in Texas is drought relief. Much like California, parts of Texas have also been immersed in a long term drought. After the big May floods, Texas went back to a super dry hot summer. But notice how the deep reds, illustrating dryness in these frames, just disappears from Texas and Louisiana in just a week.

The great California hope is that El Niño will do the same for the Golden State.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that these stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Same Texas rivers, same Texas towns, inches of rain

October 31, 2015UncategorizedBlanco River Texas, extreme flash floodsadmin

October 31, 2015

Same Texas rivers, same Texas towns, inches of rain, as extreme flash floods try to erase years of drought. Months apart, and on the opposite sides of summer, yet even in this simple comparison, the similarities are unmistakable. If it wasn’t for the small differences in the satellite picture you might think I repeated the same maps.

Briefly, on both surface maps, a warm front over north Texas, a surface high pressure area centered near West Virginia. On the upper charts, the event driving upper low over southwest centered near the four corners, a warm ridge over Florida, and some other vortex up over New England.

May 23, 2015 Overnight flash floods on the Blanco River Texas claim several lives.

October 30, 2015 Flash floods return not only to Central Texas, but to the same river basins as the May flash flood.

from this blog October 22, 2015:

“Olaf and now Patricia are currently hurricanes in the Pacific. Both of these tropical systems may have some influence on the U.S. The above example shows how a direct hit is not necessary to inflict great damage.”

Patricia’s influence on Texas flooding a week ago was pretty obvious, Olaf’s contribution this week is a little more convoluted. But if you trace the disturbance back a few days, it is related to the decay of Olaf’s tropical circulation.

Below shows Patricia coming across Mexico, Olaf east of Hawaii, about one week ago.

Not related, and on the other side of the world, but since I brought it up in the last blog here is an update on the one tropical systems going currently.

Category 4, 140mph, Cyclone Chapala in the Arabian sea on October 30, 2015.

There is something going on somewhere everyday and El Niño is making it crazier as time goes by.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather episodes that the stronger El Niño’s tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

El Niño continues to grow stronger

October 29, 2015Uncategorized+2.5, Arabian Sea, October temeraturesadmin

October 29, 2015

The newest weekly Pacific sea surface temperatures have been posted. It is only a tenth of a degree increase, but a weekly anomaly of +2.5 for the week of October 21, 2015 means we continue to trail 1997 by the smallest amount. Another warm week also means October has been a warm month, when October’s monthly temperature average is included into the ONI, it will increase. Our event continues to grow stronger.

07OCT2015      29.1 2.4                                08OCT1997     29.2 2.6
14OCT2015      29.1 2.4                               15OCT1997     29.2   2.5
21OCT2015    29.2   2.5                             22OCT1997     29.3 2.6

In the wake of Patricia and Olaf, much of the tropical world is quiet. No disturbances in the Pacific or the Atlantic, unusually quiet for the record season we have just experienced. Just one lonely tropical disturbance in the unlikely location of the Arabian Sea.

A tropical storm forecast to become a Category 3 hurricane and then move into Yemen on the Saudi Arabian Peninsula.Water temperatures in Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean remain above normal despite El Niño .

The El Niño warming is along the Equator, the dark shading illustrates the +2.5 anomaly stretching across many miles of warm Equatorial waters. The deep red stretching along the west coast of North America is a little bit of a wild card for the upcoming season. As discussed in El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle, the presents of the warm water could build a ridge, much like the last four years. But it could also feed numerous Pacific storms with abundant moisture like we have rarely seen in recent years.

The Pacific jet stream is already showing signs of a seasonal change to stronger and more active. So fasten your seatbelts this is really going to get wild. What we have seen in October, the 1000 year flood in South Carolina, Utah flash floods, California highways buried in mud, the strongest hurricane, this is all just the beginning. El Niño greatest influence is during the Northern Hemisphere winter. And winter is just around the corner. Actually feels like winter today in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

I show how this years Pacific water temperatures compare to the 1982 and 1997 events and highlight the kind of weather events that the stronger El Niño events tend to bring.

If you like the blog you will love the book.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Patricia… Highest wind, Most rapid intensification

October 24, 2015Uncategorized100mb in 24 hours, 200mphadmin

October 24, 2015

Hurricane Patricia has been crowned the strongest tropical system worldwide in terms of top winds, since 1970, when the satellite era began. Hurricane Patricia is the only storm with posted sustained winds of 200mph. Also, reconnaissance measured 200 mph winds. Winds in excess of 200mph were measured in two separate flights 11 hours apart.

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 192 KT 053 / 3 NM 06:47:10Z

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 192 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49Z

A quick review of what is considered the strongest storms in term of sustained wind. Pressure and basin information added for comparison.

Patricia2015,… 175knots, 200mph, 883mb dropsonde, 879mb estimate Northeast Pacific

Haiyan2013, … 170 knots, 195mph, 895mb satellite estimate Northwest Pacific

Allen 1980, … 165knots, 190mph, 899mb dropsonde North Atlantic

Tip 1979, … 165knots, 190mph, 870mb satellite estimate Northwest Pacific

Hurricane Patricia also set the record for intensification rate in a tropical system.

Hurricane Wilma did hold the record for pressure fall rate.

97mb in Hurricane Wilma in 24 hours

72mb in Hurricane Gilbert, September 1988 was previous record to Wilma.

100mb in Hurricane Wilma in 30 hours has rarely been approached.

24 hour comparison looking at the most recent Patricia numbers from actual National Hurricane Center Advisory.

======================================================================

400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

…PATRICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY…

LOCATION…14.3N 102.3W
ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI…565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB…28.94 INCHES

400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

…PATRICIA…
…THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD…
…POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY…

LOCATION…17.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…200 MPH…325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…880 MB…25.99 INCHES

400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 980 MB

400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 880 MB

So, … the New record for pressure fall rate in tropical systems established by Patricia is:

100mb in 24 hours, Wilma did 97mb in 2005, Gilbert did 72mb in 1988.

114mb in 30 hours, Wilma did 100mb.

—————————————————————————————————————–

So, …Patricia… highest wind … 200mph.

Most rapid intensification, … 100mb in 24 hours,

Beat the incredible Wilma, 97mb in 2005.

Speaking of Wilma, … 10 years ago, … October 24, 2005, 1132utc

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

A look back at the Atlantic’s Joaquin

October 22, 2015UncategorizedAtlantic's Joaquin, September 27 thru October 04admin

October 22, 2015

As we watch Hurricane Olaf and now Hurricane Patricia in the Pacific, I want to take a look back at the Atlantic’s Joaquin.

Joaquin was not your typical Atlantic hurricane. The storm developed out of an upper level low that wandered westward from the Central Atlantic. It slowly backed into the Bahamas before being booted out the big upper low that eventually helped drown South Carolina.

Below are eight sets of two satellite pictures, one set a day, from September 27 thru October 04. Standard infrared left, water vapor right.

September 27

September 28

September 29

September 30

October 01

October 02

October 03

October 04

By the end of this picture sequence a healthy portion of South Carolina was displaced by 20 to 25 inches of rain.

Olaf and now Patricia are currently hurricanes in the Pacific. Both of these tropical systems may have some influence on the U.S.

The above example shows how a direct hit is not necessary to inflict great damage.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Wild Bill’s Weather Blog

…..All weather…All the time!

Current weekly numbers exceed strongest El Niño year.

It is happening, … the focus is shifting

+ 2.8 in the 3.4 Niño region, stormy weather continues

above normal rainfall, no disasters

A little snow in the Sierra, +2.7 most impressive

Three historic 20 inch flood events in the last 5 weekends

Same Texas rivers, same Texas towns, inches of rain

El Niño continues to grow stronger

Patricia… Highest wind, Most rapid intensification

A look back at the Atlantic’s Joaquin