Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Pacific tropical weather season is breaking records.

October 21, 2015UncategorizedPacific Ocean, record hurricanes, strong hurricaneadmin

October 21, 2015

The Pacific tropical weather season is breaking records.

Phil Klotzbach is a Colorado State University tropical weather researcher and specialist who has filled the void since the well known Dr. Gray retired. In recent days he has made some amazing statements about the tropical weather season in the Pacific.

A couple of his observations are quite impressive in terms of our current El Niño discussion.

A record 14 named storms have occurred so far this season in the Central Pacific. The previous record for total number of storms was 10 from 1982.

A record 8 named storms have formed within the Central Pacific basin. The previous record was 4 from 1982.

The current state of the Pacific Ocean is breaking records set during one of the other great El Niño years, 1982, which is discussed at some length in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…

——————————————————————————————————————-

200 PM PDT MON OCT 19, 2015

…OLAF RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE…
…EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT…

———————————————————————————————————————–

With this advisory Olaf became the 21st Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this tropical season, 2015, or like since May, … also a new record. So despite just two major hurricanes in the Atlantic this season and only one Category 4, the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, mainly the Pacific, is having a record year. Hurricane Olaf is adding to that record.

A visible shot of Olaf at 145mph, near 143W, and only 11N, still some 1000 miles from Hawaii.

A quick visit with the spaghetti plots to illustrate the current model trend. Once again this season, not a forecast track you are going to see all that often associated with a Category 4 hurricane.

Monday 19th 18z run at 210 hours reaches Wednesday Oct.28, 2015 12z

Tuesday 20th 12z run at 192 hours reaches Wednesday Oct.28, 2015 12z

The area of low pressure off the California Coast on both runs can be traced back to Olaf. It is only two runs out of many, most solutions do not bring Olaf to California. But this passed week we saw from this blog that this model does show some skill even out as far as a week.

So a record tropical weather season in the Pacific has given us something else to watch.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Maintaining a +2.4, Our event remains robust

October 20, 2015UncategorizedCategory 4, Hawaii, Hurricane Olafadmin

October 20, 2015

The newest weekly sea surface temperatures have been posted with no big surprises. Maintaining a +2.4 for another week means our event remains robust. Trailing 1997’s record pace by one tenth of a degree is almost as trivial as it sounds. The last seven weeks are just about a carbon copy of 1997’s record level.

02SEP2015      28.9   +2.1                             03SEP1997     28.9   +2.1
09SEP2015      29.0 +2.3                             10SEP1997     28.9   +2.2
16SEP2015      29.0 +2.3                             17SEP1997     28.9 + 2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   +2.3                             24SEP1997     28.9   +2.2
30SEP2015      29.1 +2.4                             01OCT1997     29.1 +2.4

07OCT2015 29.1 +2.4 08OCT1997 29.2 +2.6
14OCT2015 29.1 +2.4 15OCT1997 29.2 +2.5

Strong hurricanes usually don’t hang out near 140-150W latitude, the tropical Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii. Olaf is now a Category 4 with 140mph winds currently headed west in the general direction of Hawaii. The storm’s existence as well as its location is natures sign or testimony that the El Niño warming of Eastern Pacific is in deed in progress.

The broader picture shows Hurricane Olaf in reference to Hawaii and the Eastern Pacific.

Tuesday October20, 2015 03z

The Nino 3.4 Region runs 120-160W, 5 degrees north and south of the Equator, or just south of where our hurricane is tracking. So the storm has intensified very near the warm region of interest. But in doing so, the circulation of the storm stirs up the ocean surface and actual works to lower the sea surface temperature through vigorous mixing.

So, our current weekly sea surface temperature might be a little higher if it were not for this developing hurricane right in the Nino3.4 neighborhood.

Covered the forecast for Monday October 19, 2015 12z in a couple of blogs. Here are the actual satellite and model surface maps from Monday morning, and one of the forecast maps from 7 or 8 days ago.

Monday October 19, 2015 12z

GFS 06z run 006 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015 12z

GFS 00z run 204 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015 12z

OK, a little surprised, did not see the two panels side by side until this blog. Usually there a few more differences with such comparisons, especially a forecast for a week away. I may have to revisit such analysis in the near future. The idea is to have some forewarning before yet another interstate highway becomes impassable.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

California rain: The Good, The Bad, and it can be Ugly

October 19, 2015UncategorizedInterstate 5, Mojave California, Palmdale, State Route 58, Tejon Pass, Yosemite Fallsadmin

October 18, 2015

California rain: The Good, The Bad, and it can be Ugly.

The Good.Just an inch and a half of rain at 8000 feet and Yosemite Falls comes back to life.

The Bad.State Route 58 west of Mojave, California. The rain and hail occurred Thursday afternoon. This picture is from midday Friday. (KABC via AP)

It can be UglyInterstate 5 near Tejon Pass after the Thursday afternoon downpour. (CNN)

Route 58 is the red line, on the map below, running due east from Bakersfield. Interstate 5 runs south from the “S” in Bakersfield into Los Angeles.

Doppler Radar rainfall estimate for the Thursday October 15, 2015 thunderstorms. The deep red is two and a half inches, the maroon color is closer to three. The white dot near the “P” in Palmdale would indicate amounts greater than five inches. The presences of golf ball size hail in these storms could mean these estimates are higher than actually rainfall.

So, an inch of rain and Yosemite falls is back in business. Two to three inches of rain and the main roads are a disastrous muddy mire.

New weekly update of ocean water temperature anomalies coming later today.

16SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           17SEP1997     28.9   2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           24SEP1997     28.9   2.2
30SEP2015      29.1   2.4                           01OCT1997    29.1   2.4

07OCT2015 29.1 2.4 08OCT1997 29.2 2.6

14OCT2015 later today 15OCT1997 29.2 2.5

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

First a brief review, impressive display of large hail and flash flooding

October 16, 2015UncategorizedFlash Flooding, Large Hail, Northern Los Angeles Countyadmin

October 16, 2015

First a brief review of The Monthly Diagnostic Discussion from The Climate Prediction Center. This discussion was released on October 8 and is posted on the CPC website.

“During September, sea surface temperature anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Niño indices generally increased. The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index values became more negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño. All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016.”

Once again, strong words from a government institution that usually stresses caution and discourages over reaction.

So this is serious stuff, even our conservative government specialists cannot deny the alarming warmth of the central and eastern Pacific or the potential for countrywide impacts this winter.

Despite a relatively quiet current weather pattern across most of the nation on Thursday, slow moving thunderstorms put on an impressive display of large hail and flash flooding in Northern Los Angeles County.

Radar summary, mid-afternoon Oct. 15, 2015

Oct. 15, 2015 Los Angeles County flash flood. (Photo via KTLA)

from Chapter V in El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…

“California responds to any tropical inundation pretty quickly and dramatically. So, watch California! When their streets become rivers and their desert bridges begin to wash out, it may be time to start filling the sandbags. Bad weather that begins in California will not end there, it will spread to other parts of the country.”

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Fall Color time, Cold pattern, New Book Cover

October 15, 2015UncategorizedFall Color, Fall Foliageadmin

October 15, 2015

Fall Color time

A quick pause to make note of a special weekend, the middle of October, fall foliage time for a healthy portion of the nation. Clouds, wind, and snow flurries across portions of New England should not discourage your pursuit of the perfect picture.

Cold pattern for much of the east for the upcoming weekend.

The two “H’s” over Minnesota and over Illinois guarantee a sparkling weekend for many.

Anomalies in 3.4 Niño region grew from +1.7°C in July, top left, to +2.4°C in October, bottom left. Left chart is graphic representation of that increase. Then compare left to right, similar but simpler than the chart in chapter 1 of the book, El Niño warming 2015 left, La Niña cooling 2010 to the right.

El Niño warming 29.1°C actual, +2.4°C anomaly, La Niña cooling 24.8°C actual, -1.9°C anomaly. The difference is 4.3°C or 7.74°F almost 8°F or 85°F water compared to 77°F.

The current anomaly is +2.4°C or 4.3°F. The area of unusually warm water stretches for thousands of miles across the Pacific east of the dateline. This is what all the excitement is about. The warmest ocean water having changed its global position, changes weather patterns especially for the northern hemisphere winter season.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

E-Book update:

Look for my New cover and updated ONI & EQSOI charts which show the progress of the equatorial warming associated with this year’s El Niño.

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

1997 had a warm early October, a little warmer than this year.

October 13, 2015UncategorizedBill Patzert, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratoryadmin

October 13, 2015

1997 had a warm early October, a little warmer than this year.

07OCT2015 29.1 2.4 08OCT1997 29.2 2.6

No increase in water temperature, no change in the anomaly during the past week in the 3.4 Niño region. 1997 had an early October surge, 28.9°C to 29.2, so 1997 has the edge for the moment. 2015 so far has shown no such surge in October but trails 1997 by only one tenth of a degree in measured temp 29.1 to 29.2°C.

Despite this little weekly set back, concern about this upcoming event continues to grow, especially for California.

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena California, recently said, “This is as close as you’re going to get to a sure thing.” This El Niño, he said, is “too big to fail”. Strong words from a government scientist that usually stresses caution and discourages over reaction.

He is speaking to the California media, trying to assure them rain is in deed on the way. But with that rain, so desperately needed for drought relief, will also come floods and mud slides.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, what we don’t, and WHY you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

South Carolina rainfall update, Forecast model inconsistence

October 11, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

October 11, 2015

South Carolina rainfall update,

South Carolina rainfall on Saturday October 10, 2015. Radar estimates reach over 4 inches in areas west of Columbia. Several Flash Flood Warnings were issued less than a week after last weekend’s catastrophic event.

Forecast model inconsistence,

Another look at the same three days we have been looking at, namely next Saturday, Sunday, Monday, the 17th, 18, and 19th, basically next weekend. Strangely, moisture approaching Northern California but not from any tropical influence like we saw in yesterday’s model run. Nora remains deep in the tropics far away from California. It is really not unusual to have large differences from run to run. The Nora forecast is a pretty big change. However, even with the Nora change, the model still engineers significant moisture into Northern California. In this run, that is weak Nora in between Hawaii and the soon to develop Olaf. Next weekend still looks interesting for at least Northern California, that is at least some green hanging around.

GFS 18z run 162 hour forecast for Saturday October 17, 2015 12z

If this forecast actually verified it would be a very welcome wet October weekend in parts of California.

GFS 18z run 186 hour forecast for Sunday October 18, 2015 12z

From the Blog several days ago, “GFS model for the Pacific at 300 hours or about 12 days out shows a 960mb low”. This was on the 7th so, a 12 day forecast would be around Monday the 19th. so, ….

The 18z run shows a rather small unimpressive 982mb low for early Monday the 19th.

GFS 18z run 210 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015 12z

Where as the 00z run shows a large rather impressive 956mb low for early Monday the 19th.

GFS 00z run 204 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015 12z

This is just different runs of the same model. Forecasters have several models to choose from, all run several times a day. Weather forecasting has its challenges. The one clue consistent to all four days we have looked at is this “960mb” low lurking somewhere west of Washington State on Monday the 19th.

These runs also lost interest in anything too serious in the Gulf of Mexico. Although still an area to watch, big high to north, old front, moisture gathering, definitely a tropical breeding ground.

The next big test for the 2015 El Niño comes Monday when the next round of weekly anomaly numbers are released. 1997 jumps two tenths in the coming week, will 2015 keep pace?

16SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           17SEP1997     28.9   2.2
23SEP2015      29.0   2.3                           24SEP1997     28.9   2.2
30SEP2015      29.1   2.4                           01OCT1997    29.1   2.4

07OCT2015 Monday 08OCT1997 29.2 2.6

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

More rain more dam worries in South Carolina

October 10, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

October 10, 2015

The serious flooding in South Carolina began to get much worse during the day last Saturday. Look at Saturday morning one week later.

The system is moving quickly so no repeat of last weekend. But still thunder and lightning and downpours to begin the weekend.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle… What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

A little hung up on what is next.

October 10, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

October 10, 2015 A little hung up on what is next.

The South Carolina disaster hit a little close to home. I feel like I need watch all this a little more closely. Which by the way is really the theme of my new e-book. You have got to watch and be aware.

In my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle… I expressed my opinion that a specific weather forecast beyond 4 or 5 days tends to become climatology. What is considered “normal” for that location and time of year. But our current running GFS model, the Global Forecasting System, produces solutions out to 15 days.

So, in the spirit of “what could possibly be next”, let us run that GFS model and see what we find. Last blog I left you with this forecast panel of the pacific.

GFS model for the Pacific at 300 hours or about 12 days out shows a 960mb low. This was on the 7th so, a 12 day forecast would be around Monday the 19th.

We are looking at a 960mb low Monday the 19th somewhere west of Washington State.

Yes, another tropical system in the East Pacific forecast to become a hurricane.

One run of the GFS today thinks next Sunday the remnants of this system will be west of Santa Maria headed into California. Not the end of the world, the system looks quite small. But after Joaquin last weekend and Hurricane Oho spinning past Hawaii this week, how could there even be the possibility of another tropical system affecting the U.S.?

It is just one model run. There are 4 in a day and it is over a week away. In South Carolina a week changed the landscape. But like in a novel, you must suspend the disbelief.

GFS 18z run 210 hour forecast for Sunday October 18, 2015 12z

In the next six panels, the model takes the remnants of what will become Hurricane Nora, and swings her right up to California and into San Francisco Bay area by late Sunday.

And yes by panel 6th panel we are at Monday morning October 19. Moisture from Nora still in California, and only a 964mb low west of Washington State. We start all this with the snapshot of a 960 pacific low. Also the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico depicted the model 2 days ago appears to be alive and well.

Go to full screen and increase your page size to 200 for the best view of the graphs below.

GFS 18z run 174 and 186 hour forecast for Saturday October 17, 2015 00z and 12z

GFS 18z run 198 and 210 hour forecast for Sunday October 18, 2015 00z and 12z

GFS 18z run 222 and 234 hour forecast for Monday October 19, 2015 00z and 12z

So, if this weekend is quiet and pleasant where you are enjoy! Tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific is a sign El Niño is alive and well, and that means more amazing weather is just days away.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Another Hurricane, fortunately another miss for Hawaii

October 8, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

October 08, 2015

Another Hurricane, and yet another miss for Hawaii. There have been a number of storms that have been in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands this season, but none so far, have had the impact that the one tropical storm had last year. But with our current El Niño in full swing, warming the waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific, the threat to Hawaii from tropical systems will continue well into November.

Water vapor picture of Hurricane Oho from early Wednesday morning. The Advisory is from Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Oho Advisory Number 020
Issued at 500 PM HST WED OCT 07 2015
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
Location: 30.5N 144.5W
ABOUT 995 MI…1605 KM NE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1045 MI…1685 KM NE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 85 MPH…140 KM/H
Present movement: NNE or 20 degrees AT 41 MPH…67 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 968 MB…28.59 INCHES

A tropical forecast track you just do not see every day. A system expected to retain tropical storm strength and status to near to near 40 degrees north latitude. That is pretty far north for our West Coast. And a tractable post-tropical storm to the coast of British Columbia late Thursday early Friday.

The little purple dot, center image east northeast of Hawaii is the hurricane. The advisory has the storm moving NNE at 41 mph. Image below is only 18 hours after image above, notice Hawaiian Islands are left far behind.

The storm is really moving, already passing west of Washington state late in the day on Thursday October 8th.

Finally, a quick tease illustrating that the long cool weather season has begun. There will be something to watch just about every day from now until spring.

GFS model for the Pacific at 300 hours or about 12 days out shows a 960mb low, similar to a Category 2 hurricane, some 600 miles from the Pacific Northwest. So, there is a possibility for two strong remnant tropical systems near the Pacific Northwest in less than two weeks. The purple dot near the tip of Cuba could become an interesting feature for Florida. Positive note: in this snap shot, most the United States actually pretty quiet.

The clean up and recovery has not even begun in South Carolina and new concerns are already on the distant horizon. Welcome to El Niño.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño: The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

Wild Bill’s Weather Blog

…..All weather…All the time!

Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Pacific tropical weather season is breaking records.

Maintaining a +2.4, Our event remains robust

California rain: The Good, The Bad, and it can be Ugly

First a brief review, impressive display of large hail and flash flooding

Fall Color time, Cold pattern, New Book Cover

1997 had a warm early October, a little warmer than this year.

South Carolina rainfall update, Forecast model inconsistence

More rain more dam worries in South Carolina

A little hung up on what is next.

Another Hurricane, fortunately another miss for Hawaii