October 06, 2015 – Hurricane moves away, but still a 1000 year flood

Below are some of the highest rainfall amounts in Charleston County, South Carolina from the recent storm. These are four day amounts, Friday Oct. 2 thru Monday Oct. 5.  There is no landform that can absorb 26 inches of rain in less than 4 days. That is nearly 6 months of rain in 4 days.

CHARLESTON COUNTY…

6 NE MOUNT PLEASANT  26.88  10/05 COCORAHS

3 ESE CAINHOY                    25.50  10/05 STORM TOTAL

3 SSW SHADOWMOSS       24.10  10/05 NWS EMPLOYEE

5 SSE CHARLESTON           23.61  10/05 COCORAHS

3 SW FOLLY BEACH             21.45 10/05 COCORAHS

This was the last image on my last blog early Saturday showing the rain in progress across  The Palmetto State .

The deluge continued into Saturday across mainly South Carolina.  Regional radar and water vapor imagery show the narrow channel of moisture  from the hurricane to South Carolina .

With both the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the record Maine flood of October 1996, it was dying and decaying tropical systems that kicked in the excess moisture.

Water vapor image from midday Saturday showing a rare eye from Joaquin when the storm was near its strongest point.  The image was taken around the same time Air Force reconnaissance  survived a gust to 144 knots which is about 165 mph. The Hurricane Center briefly lifted top winds on the hurricane to 155 mph, just under Category 5 status.

MAX FL WIND 144 KT 148 / 14 NM 14:46:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind 144 Knots from 148 degrees or SSE, the observation occurred 14 nautical miles from the center of Joaquin at 14:46z or 10:36 AM EST  Saturday morning.

Again 144 knots is about 165 mph, all this from a VORTEX DATA MESSAGE sent by Air Force reconnaissance.  The entire message below includes a description of the ride into the storm and what they found when they got there,  Moderate turbulence inbound. Clear above in Center.

URNT12 KNHC 031523
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112015
A. 03/14:51:00Z
B. 25 deg 51 min N
071 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2523 m
D. 138 kt
E. 147 deg 15 nm
F. 233 deg 144 kt
G. 148 deg 14 nm
H. EXTRAP 934 mb
I. 13 C / 3044 m
J. 17 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. Closed
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF304 1311A JOAQUIN            OB 18
MAX FL WIND 144 KT 148 / 14 NM 14:46:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 313 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
Eye sonde failed.  Moderate turbulence inbound.  Clear above in Center.

The rain Friday into Saturday was already creating a disaster, but the rain continued, and it continued across the same South Carolina counties thru Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday.  Hurricane Joaquin traveled hundreds of miles and the moisture channel just pivoted with the storm never losing its connection to South Carolina.

Saturday morning                                                                  Sunday morning

The hurricane actually did just move away.  This is quite miraculous considering what some of the model forecasts were doing with a possible landfall.

So,  a unique event to be sure, we were fortunate the hurricane itself stayed far from the United States.  South Carolina did NOT get another Hugo.  But still got nailed with what is being called a “1000 year” event.  An event of this magnitude is expected once every 1000 years.

El Niño is still alive and well in early October, the most recent weekly region 3.4 anomalies are running dead even with 1997.  So, this El Niño thing is happening, we gotta be on guard.  The Joaquin situation evolved very quickly.  It really could have been any where along the coast.  So, who’s going to be next?  When is the next 1000 year flood?

01OCT1997      29.1C    2.4C

30SEP2015      29.1C     2.4C

More on these warm anomalies later this week.

Welcome to El Niño.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

October 03, 2015

No Hurricane, but still heavy rain!

The spaghetti chart is one of the better illustrations currently of the major hurricane threat going out to sea. So, no land falling Hurricane for the East Coast this weekend.  It’s kind of  amazing that it was even a possibility.  But we looked at three model runs over three different days that brought distinct areas of low pressure westward into the U.S.

But in the four days we have discussed this storm system it really has not gone anywhere except into the Central Bahamas for an extended stay.   Overnight positions over the last four nights show a southwest small loop into the Bahamas and then back out.  Overall the satellite picture below looks pretty similar to the last several nights.   A red blob well east southeast of Miami.

September 30  200 AM EDT…0600 UTC….25.5N 72.0W

October      01   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC …23.5N 73.4W

October      02   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC… 23.0N 74.7W

October      02   200 AM EDT…0600 UTC…24.8N 73.7W

The following pictures are water vapor images, they show where the rich moisture is in contrast to the drier air.   The story at the moment is the trail of moisture from Joaquin northward to the Carolinas.  The Hurricane is 500 miles away and moving away, but its moisture is still causing serious problems. This is an example of what is called “transitional season high amplitude flow”, spring or autumn weather patterns with blocking ridges and cut off lows.  These types of patterns are the most difficult for forecasters and forecast models.

Shown for comparison to water vapor image above and pic in yesterdays blog taken at the same time of day.

Columbia South Carolina radar showing what is going on under the bright white clouds.

Wild Bill

October 02, 2015 Friday

A BIG sigh of relief…Still some questions

Now all of a sudden,  track forecasts for Joaquin are trending not only off shore,  but well off shore.  So, overall a much brighter outlook for the weekend for the Eastern Seaboard, although still a few issues.  Joaquin is a large, strong storm and will be pushing against a large high pressure system over Eastern Canada.

Let us look at the same products we have viewed in recent days and track the progress of our system.  First, the Hurricane Center track is now well offshore.

Now the forecast for Sunday morning from the GFS, looks much like yesterdays run with the Hurricane well east of North Carolina.

Here the forecast for Sunday morning from the 00Z NAM and there is our storm just a few miles from Savannah.  So, not all operational models are on board with the out to sea idea.   And over three days the Sunday morning position of our Hurricane has swung from Southeast Virginia to Southern New Jersey to a position closer to Bermuda.

So, with all that has gone on with this storm in the last 3 or 4 days , I suspect there may still be a wrinkle or two before this is completely over.  Also notice in the pic below the storm really has not gone very far in the last 48 hours.  It is still in the Bahamas southeast of Miami.  I have worked with this stuff for years and it still amazes me. The storm itself has barely moved, but the forecast positions have drifted literally hundreds of miles.

The water vapor channel overnight clearly shows the Sandy-like  upper disturbance that has developed over Alabama and Georgia.  It is the development and evolution of this particular feature that has made and may continue to make the forecast so difficult and changeable.

We will end with a positive chart, the spaghetti plots are currently mainly well offshore.

Stay tuned.

Wild Bill

October 01, 2015

Forecast concerns jump from a possible tropical storm offshore to a Category 4 Hurricane in just 48 hours .  Despite a relatively slow season so far, all of a sudden a rather important weekend ahead.

At 5AM EST Sept. 30  Tropical Storm at 70 mph, and 988mb.

At 2AM EST Oct. 1st  CAT 3 Hurricane at 120 mph, and 948mb

The storm has become 50 mph stronger and the pressure has dropped to 948mb, it was as high as 988mb  late Tuesday night, that’s down 40mb in less than 24 hours.

This is a perfect example of why tropical systems are so respected, and why we pay to have a National Hurricane Center.

Joaquin now a much stronger storm with much bigger consequences.  The closer it tracks to the coast the greater the impact, And look at the forecast now, …

INIT  01/0300Z 23.8N  73.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 23.5N  73.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  02/0000Z 23.6N  74.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  02/1200Z 24.7N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  03/0000Z 26.6N  74.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  04/0000Z 31.6N  74.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  05/0000Z 36.2N  75.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 38.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

The Hurricane Center forecast finally comes back toward the coast, and of course the model that has been so onshore with its track, now runs more parallel along the Delmarva and Jersey coast .  Tonight the forecast track looks more like a stronger Irene than a hooking Sandy. Below, most recent Sunday morning forecast showing Joaquin well offshore and headed north,  below that,  Sunday morning forecast 6 hours before  showing Joaquin settling into Southeast Virginia.  So this is still a developing situation, everybody needs to watch from the Carolinas up through New England, and be ready to act. Life threatening conditions may be experienced  as early as late Saturday along the Outer Banks of North Carolina..

Forecast for Sunday morning, 12z is 8 AM EDT, above 00z run Oct. 1, below 18z run Sept.30.  Consecutive runs 6 hours apart, different solutions.

The storm is much stronger,  but fortunately has not moved much yet. It s really not far from where it was last night.

Spaghetti models still appear to be hanging on to the hook in this chart  But these update every 3 to 6 hours depending on the model.  So some change is likely in this product as well as time passes.

This is probably the biggest tropical weather forecast for the Middle Atlantic Coast and New England since Sandy.  So the drama associated with this event is just beginning.

Last recon currently posted is 948mb,  just for comparison in 2012 Sandy was 946mb at landfall.   Irene was 951mb in 2011 when it first reaches North Carolina . Both Irene and Sandy were very costly storms, the fact we can make these comparisons shows the gravity of the situation.  But Joaquin is forecast to get even stronger, so much more in the days ahead as we watch to see what happens to the East Coast.

Wild Bill.

September 30, 2015   Why you have to pay attention with an  El Niño enhanced season.

Alert, Alert,  East Coast,  Alert,  two consecutive model runs with disturbing outcomes.

A below normal hurricane season does not mean absolutely no hurricanes.

So perhaps, here comes our one problem storm of the season.

Joaquin is not only forecast to be a Hurricane, but a Category 2 Hurricane late Friday

INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

INIT  30/0900Z 25.4N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  30/1800Z 25.1N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 24.7N  73.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 24.7N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  02/0600Z 25.2N  74.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  03/0600Z 28.3N  73.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  04/0600Z 33.0N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 37.0N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

Above are National Hurricane Center forecast positions for the next five days.

A 90 mph Hurricane 100 miles east of Virginia Beach late Sunday night.

But, this is the Sunday morning forecast 12z Oct 04 from GFS model 00Z run Wed Sept. 30.

In a nutshell, that is Hurricane Joaquin sitting inland over Southeast Virginia.

This current run hooks Joaquin into Virginia very reminicent of the way Sandy went into New Jersey in October 2012.

It is NOT the official forecast, just a most recent model solution.

It certainly could be two consecutive bad runs of the model, but it could also be a new forecast trend that would have great impact on the fragile Mid-Atlantic coast.

Joaquin is the red blob east of Miami in this early morning picture from Wednesday Sept. 30. That little patch of blue over Missouri marks the next shortwave expected to settle into Alabama and Georgia stearing Joaquin north along the U.S. Coast.

Potential serious stuff for the Middle Atlantic Coast this weekend, but also a great heads up for all of us .  The enhanced El Niño season has begun.

Wild Bill

latest spaghetti runs also show a westerly hook

September 29, 2015

close to an exact match

Here is a quick side by side comparison of weekly SST anomalies in the El Niño 3.4 region
for the last three months. This year 2015 to the left, 1997 to the right.
01JUL2015      28.9 1.4            02JUL1997     29.0 1.5
08JUL2015      28.8 1.5            09JUL1997     28.9 1.6
15JUL2015      28.9 1.7            16JUL1997     29.0 1.8
22JUL2015      28.8 1.6            23JUL1997     28.8 1.7
29JUL2015      28.8 1.7            30JUL1997     28.9 1.9

05AUG2015      28.9 1.9            06AUG1997     28.8 1.8
12AUG2015      28.9 2.0            13AUG1997     28.9 2.0
19AUG2015      28.9 2.1            20AUG1997     28.9 2.1
26AUG2015      29.0 2.2            27AUG1997     28.8 2.0

02SEP2015      28.9 2.1            03SEP1997     28.9 2.1
09SEP2015      29.0 2.3            10SEP1997     28.9 2.2
16SEP2015      29.0 2.3            17SEP1997     28.9 2.2
23SEP2015      29.0 2.3            24SEP1997     28.9 2.2
There is no more than 2 tenths of a degree difference in any week over the last 13 weeks.
When it comes to scientific comparison this may be as close to an exact match as you will ever see.
As we discussed in El Niño, The Wild side of the Weather Cycle, an experience similar to 1997, is going to have its disadvantages. The 1997-98 El Niño was the strongest and had impacts around the world.

Active weather continues in late September with flooding rains in Southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Heavy rain becomes a threat for the East coast, and especially the Northeast as a series of events including a tropical storm line up to bother The East in the final days of September.

The need to stay alert and understand the threats for active weather is already increasing due to the prominence of the current El Niño.

Wild Bill

September 26, 2015

As I continue to ponder the fate of the 7 Utah hikers in Zion National Park, the apparent source of the moisture is an interesting subject.  Enhanced tropical moisture drifted into the Southwest U.S. from a remnant tropical system, former Hurricane Linda, on Monday September 14th.  Record September rains occurred in California and flash floods caused fatalities in Arizona and Utah.

Interesting calendar day to be reflecting on tropical moisture and the Desert Southwest.  Reviewing the San Diego NWS homepage today,  September 26th, I found past weather telling a similar story, life threating flash floods because of tropical rains.

September 26, 1997: Heavy rain and thunderstorms developed on Sept. 24 and ended on this day. That moisture came from the remnants of Hurricane Nora.

September 26, 1982: The remnants of Hurricane Olivia re-curved northeastward across Southern California.

So the remnants of Hurricane Nora in 1997,  and the remnants of Hurricane Olivia in 1982, both from infamous years from my new e-book.

And now we have the remnants of Hurricane Linda in 2015.

The book is written, but the journey is just beginning, …

Welcome to El Niño.

Learn more in my latest e-book El Niño:  The WILD side of the weather cycle…
What we know, What we don’t, and Why you should care!

Available at Amazon

Wild Bill

September 25, 2015

I am troubled by a recent occurrence. Two of my favorite things, eventful weather and National Parks, have managed to intertwine in a bizarre, unsettling and tragic way.  My experiences pull me in opposite directions.  On a tightly scheduled vacation with friends or family,  I can safely say,  a 40 percent chance of showers would probably not prompt changes to the daily plan.   On the other hand, one brief exposure to the slot canyons of Zion Canyon, even on a dry, safe summer day had me thinking, “this is one scary place!”.  The primary canyon of the Park is narrow enough. But deeper in, sheer walls that tower 2000 feet high narrow to just a few feet wide. These are Slot canyons, like a coin slot, very, very thin.  You would not want to be at the bottom of this narrow, water scoured channel if there were any runoff at all.  Oh no,  is that a dark cloud?  At the bottom of those canyons very little sky is visible. Much greater minds than mine have wrestled with National Park policy.  The delicate balance between public safety and unrestricted access to our nations wildest lands is always a challenge.   I am not sure anything should change. But after 25 years of jumping for every Flash Flood Warning in a client’s listening area, 7 fatalities at such a place of awe and adventure, seems an awfully high price to pay for a day in the wild.   How did all the safety measures fail in this particular situation?

More thoughts next time

Wild Bill

September 24, 2015

17SEP1997       28.9C   2.2C

16SEP2015       29.0C   2.3C

For a brief moment in mid-September 2015 the weekly SST anomalies in the 3.4 region actually exceeded the value of the record 1997 season.   1997 had a slight lead most weeks of late August and early September, so 2015 currently lags behind 1997 in the 3 month averages and the ONI.  The next several weeks will be quite interesting to see if this year can continue to warm at the 1997 rate.

Watch for more unusual weather events as the anomalies warm.

Wild Bill